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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a 4-5 fold increased risk of ischemic stroke and a doubled mortality risk and so its prevention is thus of great importance. There are conflicting data if obesity is a risk factor for AF.
What are the predictors of development of persistent AF in obese non hypertensive cases?
110 non-hypertensive obese patients (body mass index “BMI”>30Kg/m2) were recruited, Left ventricular mass index (LVMI), Left ventricular stiffness (LVS) and left Atrial volume index (LAVI) were calculated. Follow up 1 year to detect who got persistent AF.
AF developed in 30 cases (27.3%), we had 86 females, 20 of them developed AF (23.3%) while we had 24 males, 10 of them developed AF (41.6%). Age is comparable, and those who got AF have higher LVS (t= -4.69, p=0.000), BMI (t= -11.18, p=0.000) and LAVI (t=-21.19, p=0.000). LVMI is higher in females and males who got AF than non-AF cases ((t= -10.46, p=0.000), (t= -9.71, p=0.000) respectively. AF occurrence is highly correlated to LVS, BMI and LAVI. ROC curve declared that LAVI was the strongest predictor to the development of persistent AF in these category of patients (AUC=0.978, sensitivity=93%, specificity=75%) with cutoff point=34.15 ml/m2.
we can hypothesis that in obese non-hypertensive patient, if LAVI exceeds 34.15 ml/m2, we can predict the occurrence of persistent AF in 1 year of follow up (AUC=0.978, sensitivity=93%, specificity=75%).